By Tom Arms
Hope is a terrible emotion. It too often leads to despair. But an almost overwhelming hope is the dominant emotion for all those supporting a Biden victory in the US presidential elections.
As I write this the election remains in the balance. No bookkeeper will give a Trump victory any odds. Biden is almost certain to win, but the emphasis is still on the words “almost” and “hope”.
Just when Biden can give his uncontested victory speech is unknown. Trump will not concede. The president has made it clear that he will contest the election result in the courts—right up to the Supreme Court; even though almost no respectable legal eagle believes Trump has grounds for his claims of a fraudulent election.
But the president’s business success was largely based on highly suspect legal triumphs and he will use his unrivalled experience in the courts to keep Biden out of the house and job which he claims as his exclusive preserve.
Observations of an Expat: The End is Not in Sight
Then there is the cloud of violence hanging over America. So far there have only been a handful of incidents. But the fact is that Trump supporters are dramatically extreme – and often armed – in support for their man.
Biden has asserted that he will be a unifying president for all Americans. The problem is that rural and small-town America have felt ignored for years. They believe that their way of life has been marginalised, under-valued, and under-represented by a coalition of patronising degree-wielding urbanites and non-whites who threaten their values.
If Biden wins, the man from Delaware may also face problems with Congress. America’s checks and balances system means that for an administration to be effective it needs a majority of support in the House of Representatives and Senate. The Democrats have held onto their plurality in the lower house but, for the time being, The Republicans have control of the Senate. This may change in January when there will be two Senate run-offs because of Georgia’s convoluted election laws.
Observations of an Expat: Taiwan
A defeated Trump is unlikely to take the accepted route of retiring to his Florida mansion to work on his memoirs and presidential library. During the campaign, son-in-law Jared Kushner was busy organising a future platform which is likely to become Trump Television. This will enable Trump to broadcast vitriol, personal insults and dangerously false conspiracy theories to undermine a Biden Administration, and prepare a 2024 bid for the White House either for himself or one of his children.
If Biden does succeed then there is hope. Joe is recognised as one of the most honourable politicians in Washington who strongly believes in the rule of law as laid down in the US constitution. In contrast, Trump twists the law to work only through friends prepared to swear feudal fealty to him personally.
Lurking racism remains at the root of many of America’s problems. The election of Barack Obama’s election was a giant step towards resolving the systemic problem, but at the same time, it imperilled the shrinking white majority, many of whom are as misogynistic as they are racist. Future vice president Kamala Harris is Black and a female. She is also in pole position to succeed Biden in the White House.
The most pressing immediate problem of a Biden Administration is the Coronavirus pandemic. As the world’s attention was grabbed by the election result, the number of new confirmed Covid-19 cases in America hit a record daily high of 102,000. Trump turned the pandemic into a political issue by blaming the Chinese, attacking his scientists and seriously minimising the health problems. He urged his followers to do the same for the sake of the economy.
In contrast, a face-masked Biden has called for a bi-partisan national effort to replace the current state-by-state system and protect both lives and the economy. To this end, he would push through the blocked economic stimulus package as quickly as possible to help businesses and individuals suffering from the financial fallout of coronavirus.
Elsewhere on the domestic front, Biden needs to protect and expand the health service which became known as Obamacare. He wants to put his mark on it and rename it Bidencare.
Observations of an Expat: Trump, COVID and Me
The environment is another issue for a President Biden. Trump rolled back many of the environmental protection measures enacted in the Obama years. He argued that they threatened American energy industry jobs. On the eve of the election, Trump officially took America out of the Paris Climate Change Accord. Biden will reverse this, return to the climate change accord and emphasise support for “green” jobs to replace those lost in the fossil fuel industry.
A Biden Administration is also likely to rejoin the Iran Nuclear Accord and maintain a tougher stance on relations with Vladimir Putin’s Russia. He will distance himself from right-wing populists Trump cosied up to. The one exception might be Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel.
It was the Obama Administration that announced the “Asia Pivot” in American foreign policy and Joe Biden had a major role in developing it. China is the biggest long-term threat to America’s superpower status no matter who sits in the Oval Office. Trump’s response to the Chinese menace was sanctions and military intimidation. Biden is likely to restore the Trans-Pacific Partnership which economically locked China out of Pacific Rim markets.
Back in 2014, Barack Obama was loud in his demands that all NATO allies fulfil their promise to spend two per cent of their GDP on defence. Trump upped the stakes by threatening a withdrawal of American support if the money was not quickly forthcoming. Naked life and death threats are not the best way to keep and influence important traditional allies. Trump left a bad taste in Europe’s political mouths. Biden will make repairing the trans-Atlantic alliance—long the cornerstone of American foreign policy a top priority.
The cornerstone in that alliance has traditionally been the Anglo-American relationship. Britain and America are bound by history and shared values. Brexit has brought that into question. Trump loved Brexit because it weakened the economic powerhouse that is the European Union, and his foreign policy was heavily weighted towards dollars with little concern for political consequences. Biden will take a more holistic view and Boris Johnson cannot expect the American support he had in the past. His much-touted US-UK trade deal must also be in danger.
None of the above is an easy task for Joe Biden, but he is the best hope for the restoration of democratic values in America and their support elsewhere in the world.
World Review
Emmanuel Macron has become increasingly active on the world stage in recently. He has come down in favour of the Armenians in Nagorno-Karbakh; rushed to Lebanon to promise help for that beleaguered country; attracted ire from the world of Islam for his devotion to French secularism and sent military forces to support Greeks in their dispute with Turkey over natural gas in the Aegean. Part of the reason for Macron’s increased international profile is that this goes down well with the voters, and the elections are only 18 months away. The foreign policy topics above are vote winners. The French Armenian community is the largest in the European Union. Its members include luminaries across the French social spectrum including Edward Balladur, Prime Minister under Francois Mitterrand and later presidential candidate. The French National Assembly was the first to pass a law condemning Turkey for the 1915 genocide of 1.5 million Armenians. Turkey has never forgiven the French for this. Not that Franco-Turkish relations have ever been warm. In the 19th century, close Turkish relations with Germany meant that France kept its distance. After World War I, the Sykes-Picot Agreement gave France a major slice of the old Ottoman Empire. Because of a traditional Franco-Turkish enmity, a Greco-Franco friendship became inevitable, which explains Macron’s support for Greece in the Aegean. When Turkey applied for membership of the European Union, Paris blocked it. Finally, the authoritarian nature of RecepTayyip Erdogan has further soured relations; not helped by Erdogan leading the world Islamic charge in the wake of Macron’s moves to secularise French Islam. Lebanon? Well, that has been an area of French special concern since 1920.
Billionaire founder of the Chinese tech giant Ali Baba and later ANT—was the second wealthiest man in China. I stress the “was” because Ma’s pocketbook took a beating this week after he dared to challenge the supreme authority of the Chinese Communist Party. Ma was all set to launch a Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Thursday. He had sunk billions into the project. It was set to be the biggest stock change debut in history. Then, at the last minute, Jack Ma was called in by the CCP for “supervisory Interviews” and told that the project no longer met “listing conditions or information disclosure requirements” It seems that Mr Ma had upset the party officials with some comments he made at a public financial forum on 24 October. He attacked China’s ultra-conservative approach to financial regulation which he dubbed “a pawnshop mentality.” This angered the Party’s financial controllers whose motto is very much “safety first” in financial matters. Ma needed to be taught a lesson: That he and other Chinese business people were allowed to exist and prosper by the grace and favour of the Chinese Communist Party.
Observations of an Expat: I am an Immigrant
It looks as if the US Middle East peace plan has sparked off a Middle East arms race. Both Washington and the UAE deny that US arms sales to the mini regional superpower were connected to the emirates’ diplomatic recognition of Israel. But it is odd that before the ink was dry, Washington agreed to unblock the sale of $10 billion worth of F35 Lighting II warplanes to the UAE. These are the most advanced multi-role planes in the world and the US allows the sale of them only its closest allies. The only other country in the Middle East with F35s is Israel. But the main problem is an American law that US weapons sales in the Middle East must not “imperil Israel’s qualitative military edge” over its neighbours. As soon as Israel heard of the deal, Israel demanded that it be or that Israel be sold some military kit to redress the balance of power. Word is that the Trump Administration agreed to sell Israel V-22 Ospreys, F-15 EX fighters, laser-guided missiles and possibly bunker buster bombs. The two sales have upset the Saudis, who regard themselves as the premier Arab power. So they have demanded that the US adds them to the list of owners of F35s. Qatar also has military ambitions and has put in its own request for F-35s. Iran, is the target for all these new weapons, and Tehran is concerned and likely to approach either Russia and/or China for a counter to American weaponry. If that happens then the Saudis and Gulf States will be knocking on Washington doors for another upgrade and….
It has been a week of terror in Europe– covid terror and Islamic terror. Coronavirus cases have risen exponentially in England, France, Germany, Belgium, Spain, Austria and Denmark. National lockdowns have returned in some degree or another. In the UK this week the number of confirmed new cases topped 25,000 a day while France reached a staggering 50,000 a day. Lockdown details vary from country to country, but generally speaking, priority is being given to keeping open the schools. However, workers are being told to work from home and non-essential businesses are shut and the shutters are coming down on the continent’s hospitality industry. The lockdowns came into effect on different days. In Austria it started on Tuesday, so the night before the crowds jammed into Vienna city centre for a last night of partying. It was the perfect conditions for 20-year-old Islamic terrorist Kujtim Fejzulai to strut through the historic city randomly shooting as many Viennese diners as possible. The butcher’s bill was four dead and 22 injured. A silver cloud in this grim scenario is the fact that two coffee-drinking Turkish Muslims, Mikhail Ozen and Recep Gultekin, braved a hail of bullets to rescue two people. Their action underscores the statement that the battle is not between Islam and Christianity or Islam and Western liberal democracies. It is a battle “between civilisation and barbarism.”
Stay Healthy,
Tom Arms